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Friday, September 11, 2009


I suppose I should be on cloud nine, waking this morning at 6:00 am and finding that my book (Double Down Bounce: How To Make Huge Profits In A Volatile Stock Market!) has not only captured the number one bestseller spot 12 weeks in a row, it has transcended the financial market/ self-help genre and soared into the top 3% of all Amazon titles worldwide. Financial books don’t garner a wide reading audience in general, but this book has been fortunate to do so.
The number one (#1) bestseller 12 weeks running, now worldwide!
#1 in Economics > Public Finance
#1 In Industries & Professions > Purchasing & Buying
#1 In Business & Investing > Economics > Debt & Deficits
#35 in Business & Investing > Economics > Econometrics
#42 in Education > Education Theory > Finance
#47 in Management & Leadership > Planning & Forecasting

Because of the tremendous response and request for a seminar, I have agreed to host a book launch party, (evening) and three seminars, (afternoon) that will be approximately three hours long. I will provide a detailed step by step process of how to implement “The Double Down Bounce” strategy and tactics into your own stock accounts or retirement programs.
The tentative reserved dates are: October 10th, 24th and November 7th respectively. The evening book launch party will be a Friday evening event prior to the book signing and seminar. These events will also include guest speakers from various areas of the economy who will give insight into how past financial planning will no longer pertain to the new economy which will spring from this current downturn cycle.
This cyclical downturn is unlike any seen by the last three generations; we must go all the way back to my 76 year old mother’s generation to find any type of equivalent. Even then the slow grinding slog out of that financial quagmire took almost an entire generation to fully kick in. The major component to that recovery was war and the end to it. Will this be a similar occurrence, only if this administration at some point decides to end this general war overall and bring home our troops in mass from specific areas?
If the administration wins on healthcare, expect the troops to remain longer and in fuller force. If the administration loses healthcare, expect the “hole” card to be the wars swift end and declaration that we in fact have achieved our objective and the time is right for the pullout, more fully than expected.


Where will all this take the broader markets? Put on your rational thinking caps and look at the markets as a whole. On June 4th on my blog, I predicted the mid-9000 DJI (Down Jones Industrials) and that prediction hit dead on the mark. That was the second prediction to be dead on the mark, 6500 to 8000 was the first. The next prediction would be a mid 10,000 but we have to suffer one more retrenching before the bull can run that market past 10,000. The Bears still rule the day and the current market can not be sustained. There are simply not enough funds within the broader market to sustain a drive to the 10,000 mark and hold there. Buying volume is down substantially now and sinking fast.
Conservative money is out-flowing toward gold, silver and other commodities again. Add to that, the major slide which will occur regardless of who wins the healthcare debate: one side will win and one will lose, however my opinion, is that no one will flood to the winners. They will retrench to safe-havens even further at a time that we are heading into a holiday season with inventories the lowest in recent memories. Therefore, goods prices will swell based on the flood to basic raw materials. The feeding of normal demand to resupply the rebounding sectors through the fourth quarters higher demand cycle.
The transportation sector, led by the bump in auto sales, (cash for clunkers, a great success) will lead thru late fall but trail into the New Year sluggishly. All of this will create what we, as believers in the Double Down Bounce: (How to make huge profits in a volatile stock market) strategy and tactics, will enhance further if the principles are followed and low point 1% back off point with moves upward of 6 to 8% ride and jump off points. This will be the time to raise upward limits while bringing bottoms higher (3% down, 5% up to 1% down and 6-8% upsides). If you do not understand this, read the book to understand how fundamental these principles are to success in the stock market.
Expect the broader market to slide into the mid to high 8000 range before a new take off point is established. The time to park in cash or other real assets (gold or other strong commodities) for the short term is coming. Have no fear, volatility is our friend and is what drives out tactical use of it, but don’t allow half your gains from 6500 to 8000, then 8000 up to 9500 to be severely cut in a hold pattern. The time to park funds is coming. And expect this afternoon’s session to retract back to the floor, and not be near the ceiling. If the floor is reset in later day trading, expect Monday’s session to be led by the profit takers driving the market down toward the basement, and establishing a new tank level to work from for the following weeks trading.
If 96 and a quarter (9625 Dow) is the new floor and the ceiling is 96 and a half (9650) then expect the basement to be lower than expected. A retrench to 95 should be expected within the next 24 trading hours today, Monday and Tuesday morning. If the reach back is a full 100 point regress, expect the Bears (profit takers) to rule for the following week. My guess is it will be a 50 percent higher retraction all the way back to 9500 or slightly less.
The predictability of this is the trading volume; we went from 500 million shares (average) now down to 200 million daily averages with red line spikes overdriving green by almost 2 to 1. The current level in the tank is unsustainable. We have another artificial bubble and it must reset until the volume peaks higher once again. Let your stocks peak today and park for safety, then watch for the Double Down Bounces coming the first of the week. The wave upward can’t be pushed out much further on the amount of cash remaining in today’s market. The bubble must pop at some point…. don’t be the one left without a seat when the music stops.

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